On Thursday, Rasmussen Reports reported that Mitt Romney had taken the lead in Ohio. They also reported that Republicans held a 13 point lead on the issue of the economy, reaching 50% for the first time in 5 1/2 years. These numbers were released Thursday....before the devastating jobs report.
We are less than a week past Memorial day entering the traditional (if not actual) start of summer. This is the beginning of the closing phase of the incumbent's opportunity to make his case for reelection. Obama's closing argument could not have gotten of to a worse start. He will not recover.
Scott Rasmussen has been saying for months that the optimism democrats had early, after a few seemingly good jobs reports, needed to be tempered. He correctly points out that, in a period of so much pessimism, it takes 4 or 5 months of good news to wipe out one really bad jobs report. Obama simply does not have those 4-5 months to recover from this report and make his case, even if this is the last of the bad jobs reports. The cement will now start to harden and, each day, voters will move permanently from the Obama column, to undecided, to the Romney column. Like the Titanic taking on water, there is no stopping it.
In an amazing irony, the Obama campaign has benefited for months from it's own hellish economic record, as millions have dropped out of the labor force, causing an artificial drop in the unemployment rate. In May, 200,000 of those people returned, causing the unemployment rate to go up. It will continue to rise until November and Obama is helpless to stop it.
Even the most ardent Obama supporter got a chill on Friday, the same chill a football fan gets when the other team scores that back-breaking touchdown that puts the game out of reach.
Let's remember that with 6 weeks to go in the 2008 campaign, John McCain was actually leading. then the wheels came off. Obama's Lehman moment occurred on Friday, June 1st- 5 months to the election. That is too close to avoid the iceberg but too far to avoid a rout.
Mitt Romney and the republicans are raising enormous amounts of cash and they are going to pound on Obama mercilessly. The Obama economy has seen a record 40 consecutive months of unemployment at 8% or higher, the exact level were were promised we would never rise to if Obama got his stimulus package. The report showing that streak stretching to 45 months will be issued just 4 days prior to voters going to the polls. The undecideds are going to break almost totally toward Romney and the republicans are going to enjoy a rout victory the likes of which they have not seen since at least 1988.
In addition to all the 2000 & 2004 Bush states returning to the fold (with the possible exception of New Mexico), Romney will sweep Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and, with the help of Chris Christie, could even pull and upset in New Jersey. This race is over.
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