Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Are predictions of a close election wishful thinking by Democrats?

Every single indicator that I look at strongly indicates just that. First, let's look at Money. In 2008, John McCain raised $384 million for his Presidential campaign. This is an amount that would have been unthinkable just in the past few years. Yet, as astounding as that number is, McCain could have doubled it, to $768 million and still fallen about $9 million short of what Obama raised.

Obama's actual money advantage was about $394 million.

Although Obama (largely because of the power of incumbency) still has raised more than $100 million more than Romney, it is not going to last long. Romney has out raised Obama by almost $52 million in the last 2 months alone. However, it is Obama, not Romney, who is spending more money...a lot more!

At the end of April, Obama had an $80 million advantage in cash on hand. At the end of May, that figure had fallen to $45 million. Obama was out-raised in May by just under $17 Million but his cash advantage dropped by more than twice that.  This kind of hemorrhaging of cash is not moving the numbers into Obama's favor. With Romney out-raising Obama in June by a staggering $35 million, and Obama still flooding the airwaves with ineffective negative ads, panic is now beginning to set in at the prospect- unthinkable a few months ago- of Romney actually taking both a fundraising and cash-on-hand race.

Panic is the right word. The Republican friendly Super Pacs have out raised the democrats more than 9-1 and are pounding Obama mercilessly. Two prominent GOP Super Pacs will spend about $65 million shelling Obama in the time leading up to the conventions.Since the Democrats cannot hope to counter this with their paltry Super Pac cash, they will have to use Obama and DNC money to counter this, even as Romney raises and hordes cash at a staggering rate. Add money Romney could lend his own campaign and it is entirely possible that Romney could match Obama's $400 Million cash advantage by election day. If you think up to an $800 million net change in fundraising advantage isn't seismic, you are delusional.

Message vs Record.

Many Republicans are wrongly lamenting Romney's lack of a positive message. They are right in one respect- Neither Romney or Obama have had anything positive to say about where they would take the country. The difference is that Obama cannot. Obama must run a negative campaign because he simply cannot say anything positive that will be believed. The fact that Obama is frozen at 43%-45% against a candidate that has put forth nothing of substance should have Democrats terrified.

Romney is simply sitting back watching Obama launch the most wasteful, false and negative campaign in history while not putting forth specific proposals that Obama and his accomplices in the Liberal press can distort and denigrate. Those proposals are coming. They will be revealed at the Convention, when everyone is watching. Then, in the two final months, positive happy "hope and change" Romney ads will fill the air from Team Romney while Obama is pummeled on his record by Crossroads GPS and the other Super Pacs. In short, Obama is about to face an absolute air-wave bloodbath.

The game will be overwhelmingly on Obama's side of the turf.

See the map on the left? That is a chart of the states where Obama's approval or reelect number are under (Red) or at/above (Blue) the 50%. Some states he is under in are no surprise or concern (Texas, Alabama, Alaska etc..) but many are at least factored in to one of the Obama campaigns pathways to 270.

Let's return all of those battlegrounds or hoped battlegrounds to toss-up status.....
North Carolina
New Hampshire

.... and you have a map that looks like most of the prognosticators. In this case, a 201-159 lead for Obama. This makes it look as if he has the upper hand, needing just 69 of the available 178 evs (less than 40%).

What people fail to realize is that he is below 50% in all of these states and winning any one of them would defy the normal historical pattern. A recent poll showed Romney +13 in Arizona so it's continued inclusion is just silly. You can say the same for Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina. Even Dems are now virtually conceding these 4 states.

This much more realistic, non-fantasy based assessment puts Romney up 206-201.
This leaves 10 states totaling 131 electoral votes, of which Obama needs 69 (52.6%).
That is 52.6% of the EVs of states where his current approval / Reelect is below 50%

Now let's look at Virginia. Bob McDonnell won the Governor's office by 18 points in 2009. In 2010, the GOP picked up 4 house seats there. In 2011, the GOP won the state senate. Add to this that Obama's 2008 VA win was a wave election fluke. The first by a Dem President since 1964.

Get real, Dems. Obama is going to lose Virginia and lose it big.

Romney count 219-201 and the mustard is off the hot dog.

If Romney can win any two of the 4 biggest remaining states, he is within striking distance of the Presidency. If one of those states is Florida, Obama would have to sweep the remaining states. The problem for Obama is that his very significant cash advantage becomes and emergency when the GOP draws the lens into focus on the most important states. Romney and company are going to pound Obama in those 9 states without mercy, especially Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin- the big ones.

Obama has no clue what is about to hit him and the GOP is playing this brilliantly.

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